Oregon vs California NCAAF Pick – Week 6
The Oregon Ducks (4-1) are hanging by a thread for their College Football Playoff expects.
After dominating Stanford within their Pac-12 debut last week, then the Ducks welcome the Cal Golden Bears (4-1) to the Autzen Zoo this Saturday (8:00 EST on FOX). In three previous seasons, the ground game has been dominated by Oregon and also had an Justin Herbert at QB from the Bears.
Theyhave won nine of last 10 general against them, andve outscored Cal from 39 total points that the previous two decades. As favorites, the Ducks come in with a identity and, according to MyBookie.
Cal lost their starting QB Chase Garbers (8 TDs-2 INT, 148.1 evaluation ) for the foreseeable future following a shoulder injury last week. The Bears have covered in their last five road games.
However, are their 10th-ranked pass defense be sufficient to pay contrary to the FEI 13th-ranked Ducks? Together with Oregon QB Justin Herbert bending a TD-to-INT ratio that is 14-0, theyll find all they can handle.
Oregon will have a few big developments to their receiving corps that weekend, even with Mycah Pittman (right shoulder) and Brenden Schooler (right foot) returning from harm. This can add crucial depth to a game thats ranked 44th in the FBS.
Herbert stays away from errors at the QB position, and itll be crucial versus a Cal group whose best unit will be the secondary. It has allowed the Bears to hold their opponents into an average of 13 points under their PPG. A team such as Miss put up 31 points at Alabama, but just 20 at home.
Cals 24 points last week, given in a loss to Arizona State is that the second-most theyve given up in an whole calendar year. It had been the secondary which served for the catalyst within their win over Washington this year.
Though theyve only given up 18.6 PPG and have the 6th-best effectiveness against big plays, their operation on the street is much more striking. Dating back to the beginning of last season, trainer Justin Wilcoxs cluster makes it possible for all of 17.3 PPG as the away team.
The only problem is, Oregon has been the only staff to place over 40 points (42) on Cal in that period of time. Herbert, leading the nation offense on passing downs, is the biggest reason for this.
But the run game hasnt started to churn from FBS teams and induce Herbert to put most the pressure on himself. He is working Even though it can be handed by him. They came in as the ideal O-line unit at the Pac, however position 113th in the rate of success and 101st in down sack speed of opponent.
It might open up chances for a Cal team with nine players. Three of these players (Kuony Deng, Luc Bequette, and Cameron Goode) have 2.5 sacks or more.
Cal had a steady hand at QB with Garbers, who drove eight TDs and kept a top passer rating. But he wasnt a dynamic danger at QB. Thus dont expect a group ranked 118th in S&P+ crime to get substantially worse.
Garbers will be replaced by devon Modster. He had a run at UCLA. He isnt but a half-step supporting Garbers concerning talent but had a tough go of his brief bit of playing time (6 for 15) this past season.
The Bears are 126th in 112th with plays . Dont expect perimeter talent or a strong ground game to bond out Modster. A 100th-ranked scoring offense is not likely to transform overnight, and certainly not contrary to the powerful late-down pass rush (ranked 24th) of those Ducks.
Oregon still has work to do after giving up chunks of yards on 1st down, however, they possess the athletes all over to swarm the Bears.
As the d-line of Oregon positions 111th contrary to these kinds of runs, cal could have had an edge in short-yardage situations. However, the Bears o-line (101st) is almost as filthy in this area as they are.
They scored at Washington with the ability to get to the quarterback and the absolute talent gap, do not expect Cal to get within the 20 points.
The over/under of this game now sits at 46 things, which sounds low. But Oregon wentunder in six of its last seven, and Cal is beneath in nine of 10.
That leaves a tiny space for Oregon to move up by more or 18 around Cal. Yes, the Bears have next-to-know firepower. But they beat and a scoring D. that is top-25 and a Washington club that is well-coached together
This team, with the schemes of Wilcox, can withstand the onslaught. They have not given up over 24 points in a road game.
Oregon may have the defense. Nevertheless, it is a stat the last three weeks composed by enjoying opponents. This game wont really be the 7-6 Redbox Bowl match Oregon last year, won. Nonetheless, its a game which will remain shut from being in the area until the shield of the Cal inevitably traces down .
Herbert has the accuracy to create a throw, While this happens. It will not come till late, though, giving the pay to Cal.
Prediction: Oregon (21) — California (10)
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