Oregon vs California NCAAF Pick – Week 6
The Oregon Ducks (4-1) are hanging by a thread to their own College Football Playoff hopes.
After dominating Stanford in their Pac-12 debut a week, then the Ducks welcome that the Cal Golden Bears (4-1) into the Autzen Zoo this Saturday (8:00 EST on FOX). In three seasons, Oregon also had an equally efficient Justin Herbert at QB and has mastered the ground game.
Theyhave won nine of last 10 overall, andve outscored Cal by 39 total points the previous two decades. As favorites, the Ducks come in Having a identity and, according to MyBookie.
Cal lost their starting QB Chase Garbers (8 TDs-2 INT, 148.1 score ) for the foreseeable future after a shoulder injury a week. The Bears have covered in their last five road games.
But are their pass shield be enough to cover against the FEI 13th-ranked Ducks? With Oregon QB Justin Herbert flexing a ratio, they will find all they could manage.
Oregon will have a few big developments for their receiving corps that weekend, even together with Mycah Pittman (right shoulder) and Brenden Schooler (right foot) coming from harm. This may add a game thats ranked 44th in the FBS and crucial depth.
Herbert remains away from mistakes in the QB position, and itll be key versus a Cal staff the best of whose unit would be the secondary. It has allowed the Bears to hold their opponents less than their PPG. By way of instance, a team like Ole Miss put up 31 points in Alabama, but just 20 at home against the Bears.
Cals 24 points awarded up in a loss to Arizona State is that the. It was the secondary that served for the catalyst within their win over top-15 Washington this year.
Though theyve just given up 18.6 PPG and have the 6th-best potency against big plays, their functionality on the street is even more impressive. Dating back to the start of last season, trainer Justin Wilcoxs bunch enables all of 17.3 PPG since the away team.
The one problem is, Oregon was the only team to post over 40 points (42) around Cal during this time period. Herbert, leading the nations 17th-best offense on downs, is the largest reason for this.
But force Herbert to put the strain on himself and the run game hasnt started to churn from FBS teams. Though it can be handed by him, hes working behind an offensive line that has not performed up to snuff. They arrived as the ideal unit in the Pac, however, position 113th in the rate of success and 101st in regular sack speed of opponent.
It could open opportunities for a Cal team up with nine players. Three of these players (Kuony Deng, Luc Bequette, along with Cameron Goode) have 2.5 sacks or longer.
Cal had a stable hand at QB with Garbers, who kept a top passer rating and drove eight TDs. However he was not a danger at QB. Dont expect a group ranked 118th in S&P+ crime to get substantially worse.
Garbers will be replaced by devon Modster. He had a brief run at UCLA. He isnt but a half-step behind Garbers in terms of ability but had a tough go of his brief little playing with time (6 for 15) this season.
The Bears are 126th in volatile plays 112th running the chunk. Thus dont anticipate perimeter talent or a strong ground game to bond out Modster. A 100th-ranked scoring crime is not likely to change overnight, and certainly not contrary to the strong late-down pass rush (ranked 24th) of the Ducks.
Oregon still has a job to take care of giving up chunks of yards on 1st down, however they have the athletes around to swarm the Bears.
Cal could have had an advantage in short-yardage conditions, as Oregons d-line rankings 111th. However, the Bears o-line (101st) is nearly as putrid in this area as they are.
They scored at Washington with the capacity to reach the quarterback and the talent difference, dont anticipate Cal to get within the 20 points.
This games over/under currently sits at 46 points, which appears low. However, Oregon wentunder in a few of its last seven, and Cal is under in nine of 10.
That leaves a very small space for Oregon to move up by more or 18 around Cal. Yesthe Bears have firepower. But they beat and also a scoring D. that is top-25 and a Washington team that is well-coached together
This team, together with the schemes of Wilcox, can defy the onslaught from any Pac-12 competition. They havent given up more than 24 points in a road game since the 2017 year old.
Oregon might have the defense. But its a stat the past three weeks, composed by sorry opponents. This match will not quite function as 7-6 Redbox Bowl match Oregon won last year. Nonetheless, its a game which will remain close from being on the field before the Cals shield inevitably wears down so much.
While this happens, Herbert has the precision to generate a big toss. It will not come till late giving Cal the cover.
Prediction: Oregon (21) — California (10)
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