Oregon vs California NCAAF Pick – Week 6
The Oregon Ducks (4-1) are hanging on by a thread to their College Football Playoff hopes.
After dominating Stanford within their Pac-12 introduction last week, then the Ducks welcome the Cal Golden Bears (4-1) into the Autzen Zoo this Saturday (8:00 EST on FOX). In three seasons, the ground game has been dominated by Oregon and had an equally efficient Justin Herbert at QB.
Theyhave won eight of last 10 overall, andve outscored Cal by 39 points that the last two years. The Ducks come in as 18-point favorites, according to MyBookie.
Cal lost their starting QB Chase Garbers (8 TDs-2 INT, 148.1 score ) for the foreseeable future after a shoulder injury a week. The Bears have covered in their last five road games.
But will their pass defense be enough to pay contrary to the 13th-ranked Ducks that are FEI? With Oregon QB Justin Herbert flexing a TD-to-INT ratio that is 14-0, they will find all they could manage.
Oregon is going to have a couple of big additions for their receiving corps this weekend, together with Mycah Pittman (right shoulder) and Brenden Schooler (right foot) coming from injury. This can add a passing game that is ranked 44th in the FBS and depth.
Herbert stays away from mistakes in the QB position, and its going be key versus a Cal group the best of whose unit will be the secondary. It has allowed the Bears to hold their opponents to an average of 13 points less than their own PPG. A team like Ole Miss set up 31 points in Alabama, but only 20 in the home against the Bears.
The 24 points given in a loss to Arizona State of cal would be the. It had been the secondary that functioned for the catalyst into their big win over Washington before this year.
Though they have only given up 18.6 PPG and have the 6th-best potency against large plays, their performance on the road is much more remarkable. Dating back to the beginning of last season, trainer Justin Wilcoxs bunch permits all 17.3 PPG as the team.
The only issue is, Oregon was the only staff to place over 40 points (42) around Cal during that time period. Herbert, directing the nations 17th-best offense on downs, is the reason for this.
However, the run game hasnt started to emphasise against FBS teams and force Herbert to put the pressure on himself. He is working with the offensive line which has not performed up to snuff though he can hand it. They came in as the best O-line unit at the Pac, but rank 113th in the rate in normal sack speed of opponent.
It might open up chances for a Cal team with nine players. Three of these players (Kuony Deng, Luc Bequette, along with Cameron Goode) possess 2.5 sacks or more.
Cal had a steady hand at QB with Garbers, that pulled eight TDs and kept a top passer rating. But he was not a danger at QB. Dont anticipate a team ranked 118th in S&P+ offense to get worse.
Devon Modster will substitute Garbers. He had a run at UCLA. He is not but a half-step behind Garbers in terms of talent but had a rough go of his brief little playing time (6 for 15) this past season.
The Bears have been 126th in 112th and explosive plays running the ball. Dont expect a strong ground game or perimeter gift to bond out Modster. A 100th-ranked scoring crime isnt going to transform overnight, and definitely not against the powerful late-down pass rush (ranked 24th) of those Ducks.
Oregon still has work to do after giving up chunks of yards on 1st down, however, they have the athletes around to swarm the Bears.
As Oregons d-line positions 111th, cal couldve had an edge in short-yardage situations. But the Bears o-line (101st) is nearly as foul in this area as they are.
They scored at Washington, with the capability to reach the quarterback and the sheer talent difference, do not expect Cal to get over the 20 points.
This games over/under now sits at 46 things, which looks unbelievably low. However, Oregon wentunder in half of its last seven, and Cal remains under nine of 10.
That leaves a very small space for Oregon to move up by 18 or more on Cal. Yesthe Bears have firepower. However they beat and also a scoring D. that is top-25 and a Washington club that is well-coached together
This team, with the schemes entirely in-place of Wilcox, can defy the onslaught. They have not given up over 24 points in a road game.
Oregon could have the defense. But its a stat the last few weeks, composed by playing sorry opponents. This game wont quite function as 7-6 Redbox Bowl match Oregon won last year. But it is a game which will remain shut before the Cals defense inevitably traces down from being in the field .
While this happens, Herbert gets the precision to generate a throw. It will not come till late, though, giving the pay to Cal.
Prediction: Oregon (21) — California (10)
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