Oregon vs California NCAAF Pick – Week 6
The Oregon Ducks (4-1) are hanging by a thread to their own College Football Playoff expects.
After dominating Stanford within their Pac-12 debut last week, the Ducks welcome that the Cal Golden Bears (4-1) to the Autzen Zoo this Saturday (8:00 EST on FOX). In three prior seasons, Oregon also had an equally Justin Herbert in QB and has mastered the ground game.
Theyve outscored Cal by 39 total points that the last two decades, and have won nine of last 10 overall against them. Using a newfound defensive identity as well as the Ducks arrive in as 18-point favorites, according to MyBookie.
Cal dropped their starting QB Chase Garbers (8 TDs-2 INT, 148.1 rating) for the foreseeable future after a shoulder injury last week. The Bears have covered in their last five road games.
But will their 10th-ranked pass shield be sufficient to pay contrary to the 13th-ranked Ducks that are FEI? With Oregon QB Justin Herbert flexing a TD-to-INT ratio that is 14-0, theyll find.
Oregon is going to have a few big developments to their receiving corps that weekend, together with Mycah Pittman (right shoulder) and Brenden Schooler (right foot) returning from harm. This may add depth that is crucial to a passing game that is ranked 44th in the FBS.
Herbert remains away from mistakes at the QB position, and it is going to be key versus a Cal group whose best unit is the secondary. Its enabled the Bears to hold their opponents into an average of 13 points less than their PPG. As an example, a team like Ole Miss put up 31 points in Alabama, but only 20 at home.
Cals 24 points a week given in a loss to Arizona State would be that the. It had been the secondary that functioned for the catalyst in their big win over top-15 Washington earlier this season.
Though they have just given up 18.6 PPG and possess the 6th-best effectiveness against large plays, their functionality on the street is even more notable. Dating back to the beginning of last season, trainer Justin Wilcoxs cluster permits all 17.3 PPG since the team.
The one issue is, Oregon was the only staff to post 40 points (42) on Cal during this period of time. Herbert, directing the countrys 17th-best crime on passing downs, is the biggest reason for it.
But force Herbert to place the strain on himself and the run game hasnt started to churn against FBS teams. He is working Even though it can be clearly handed by him. They came in as the ideal O-line unit at the Pac, however, position 113th in the rate in normal down sack rate of 101st and success of opponent.
It may open chances for a Cal team up with nine players. Three of those players (Kuony Deng, Luc Bequette, and Cameron Goode) possess 2.5 sacks or longer.
Cal had a steady hand at QB with Garbers, who kept a high passer rating and drove eight TDs. But he was not a danger that is dynamic at QB. Dont expect a group ranked 118th in S&P+ crime to get much worse.
Devon Modster will replace Garbers. He had a run at UCLA. He is not however a half-step behind Garbers concerning ability but had a rough go of his brief bit of playing time (6 to 15) this season.
The Bears are 126th in 112th with and volatile plays . Dont anticipate perimeter talent or a strong ground game to bail Modster out. A 100th-ranked scoring offense isnt going to change immediately, and definitely not contrary to the strong late-down pass hurry (ranked 24th) of the Ducks.
Oregon still has work to take care of giving up healthy chunks of yards on 1st down, however they possess the athletes around to swarm the Bears.
As the d-line of Oregon rankings 111th, cal couldve had an advantage in situations. However, the Bears o-line (101st) is nearly as putrid in this field since they are.
They scored at Washington Together with the ability to reach the quarterback and the sheer talent difference, do not expect Cal to get within the 20 points.
The over/under of this game currently sits at 46 points, which seems low. However, Oregon wentunder in half of its past seven, and Cal is under in nine of 10.
That leaves a very small space for Oregon to move up by 18 or more on Cal. Yesthe Bears have firepower. However they beat against and also a scoring D. that is top-25 and a Washington club that is well-coached together
This team, together with Wilcoxs schemes fully in-place, can defy the onslaught from virtually any Pac-12 competition. They havent given up over 24 points in a road game because the 2017 year old.
Oregon may have the 7th-best scoring defense. But its a stat compiled by sorry competitions. This game will not really be the 7-6 Redbox Bowl match Oregon won last year. Nevertheless, it is a game which will stay close from being on the area before the Cals defense inevitably traces down so much.
Herbert gets the accuracy to generate a big toss when this occurs. It will not come until late giving the pay to Cal.
Prediction: Oregon (21) — California (10)
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